Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6068…7ff3 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,007 (+7%) realized −$772 · open +$1,779
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$12,308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$144
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$1,571
finance 8% −$55
sports 5% −$489
crypto 2% +$154
world 0% −$11
culture 0% −$8
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.8% -0.7% 33% 33% -19.2%
≤30d 6 +45.2% +31.3% 67% 67% -2.3%
≤90d 27 +55.4% +40.6% 41% 41% -14.4%
all 49 -5.5% -14.5% 27% 27% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 27% -24.3%
10% -22.7% 24% -31.5%
15% -30.1% 18% -38.1%
20% -37.0% 14% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$42 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$12,308
Realized−$772
Unrealized+$1,779
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)49 / 55
History coverage108d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $2,145 $3,787 +$1,642 (+77%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $1,690 $2,974 +$1,284 (+76%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3,381 $2,610 −$771 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1,855 $1,597 −$258 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $735 $865 +$131 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $723 $475 −$248 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $972 −$290 -30%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $134 −$8 -6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $238 +$154 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $152 +$154 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 18 $5 −$4 -82%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $20 +$69 +344%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $10 −$6 -60%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 03 $162 −$162 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $130 +$58 +45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 07 $50 −$48 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 06 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $45 +$106 +236%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $470 +$162 +34%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 01 $155 −$65 -42%
Pistons vs. Thunder Mar 31 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $220 −$20 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 30 $4 −$3 -96%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $40 +$29 +72%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Yokkaichi: Li Tu vs Rio Noguchi Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lyon win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20? Mar 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Mar 26 $40 +$13 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 26 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 26 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 26 $250 −$195 -78%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Mar 16 $10 +$11 +108%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 16 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $196 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $196 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $147 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $226 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $318 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $177 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $505 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $519 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $126 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $392 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $47 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $154 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $134 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 25d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 25d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 40d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 58¢ $89 40d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 50d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 50d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 51d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 51d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 52d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 54d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 54d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 54d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 54d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,308.30 · official $12,308.30 (match) · 501 history records