Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x606a…072b other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-4%) realized −$8 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 22% -16.7%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 22% -16.7%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 22% -16.7%
all 9 +0.4% -9.2% 22% 22% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 22% -16.7%
10% -17.9% 22% -24.7%
15% -25.8% 22% -32.0%
20% -33.1% 22% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$11 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions22
Markets (closed)9 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 26h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.04 · official $223.04 (match) · 36 history records