Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

60 0x606d…45b5 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (292 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$32 (-6%) realized −$4 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day291.8pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (292 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-10.1%	-18.6%	53%	47%	-26.0%
≤30d	15	-10.1%	-18.6%	53%	47%	-26.0%
≤90d	15	-10.1%	-18.6%	53%	47%	-26.0%
all	15	-10.1%	-18.6%	53%	47%	-26.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover291.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.6%	47%	-26.0%
10% ← realistic here	-26.4%	20%	-33.1%
15%	-33.5%	7%	-39.6%
20%	-40.0%	7%	-45.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.4 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized−$4

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)15 / 18

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day291.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	Up	47¢	50¢	$17	$18	+$1 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	Down	48¢	50¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	Up	10¢	2¢	$33	$5	−$28 (-85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET	Up	49¢	50¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 15	$17	−$17	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 15	$45	−$45	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 15	$27	+$4	+14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 15	$71	+$15	+21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 15	$21	−$1	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 15	$100	+$30	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 15	$70	−$70	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 14	$15	+$2	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 14	$20	+$5	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 14	$5	$0	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 14	$45	−$10	-21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 14	$6	+$5	+84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 14	$27	−$13	-47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 13	$40	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$2	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$2	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$2	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$2	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$2	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	0¢	$0	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	16m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.05 · official $30.05 (match) · 434 history records