Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x606f…1083 world 132 markets active 3h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,520 (+3%) realized +$13,045 · open +$2,475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%62W / 48L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$4,139per market
Trades / day67.6pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$44,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,602
7 days+$2,286
14 days+$412
30 days+$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$3,981
politics 11% +$2
finance 10% +$7,898
other 7% +$5,596
sports 1% +$714
crypto 0% +$1,943
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 50% -4.9%
≤30d 74 -9.2% -17.8% 49% 34% -7.6%
≤90d 110 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 36% -6.4%
all 110 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 36% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 36% -6.4%
10% -21.1% 20% -15.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.8% 14% -23.6%
20% -35.7% 8% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$3,675) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$677 vs −$718 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$44,932
Realized+$13,045
Unrealized+$2,475
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses62 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions24
Markets (closed)110 / 132
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$4,139
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $9,354 $10,670 +$1,315 (+14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 49¢ 80¢ $3,467 $5,661 +$2,194 (+63%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5,358 $5,400 +$42 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $4,100 $4,525 +$425 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 88¢ 88¢ $2,300 $2,313 +$13 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,809 $1,919 +$110 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 91¢ 93¢ $1,830 $1,860 +$30 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 92¢ $1,757 $1,830 +$73 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $1,680 $1,807 +$127 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,695 $1,723 +$29 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,516 $1,527 +$11 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 85¢ $1,080 $1,275 +$195 (+18%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $840 $885 +$45 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 60¢ 88¢ $602 $885 +$282 (+47%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $820 $835 +$15 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 88¢ $624 $700 +$76 (+12%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 76¢ 90¢ $380 $452 +$72 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 26¢ 26¢ $260 $255 −$5 (-2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 77¢ 85¢ $178 $197 +$19 (+11%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $93 $108 +$15 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $1,353 $64 −$1,289 (-95%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $276 $23 −$253 (-92%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1,084 $18 −$1,066 (-98%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 29 $4,126 +$1,357 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 29 $2,680 +$245 +9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 27 $855 +$15 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 25 $1,230 +$240 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $33,351 +$89 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $2,095 +$340 +16%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $26 +$6 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $480 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3,675 −$435 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $396 +$325 +82%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4,265 −$3,600 -84%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $335 +$165 +49%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $4,437 −$3,346 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4,518 −$1,798 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $952 −$405 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10,267 +$1,560 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $51,495 +$5,891 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $4,319 −$237 -6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $6,250 −$1,277 -20%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $1,554 −$26 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $930 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $14,940 +$60 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $11,781 −$1,205 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $675 −$359 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $412 −$375 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $1,108 −$185 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $706 −$418 -59%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,380 +$811 +59%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,092 +$182 +17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,410 −$1,406 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,098 −$1,096 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,989 +$446 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $98 −$88 -90%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $1,784 −$117 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $2,964 −$169 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $775 +$86 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $4,681 +$277 +6%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $58,500 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $98 −$38 -39%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $434 −$370 -85%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $2,490 −$540 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 10 $450 −$290 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1,262 −$16 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,054 +$1,943 +184%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 10 $189 −$189 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $326 −$26 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $1,500 +$570 +38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $684 +$95 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $92 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $132 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $66 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $18 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $2 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $155 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $4 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $6 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $21 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $6 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $60 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 26¢ $260 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $564 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $1 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $81 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $22 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 77¢ $43 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $33 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $55 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $4 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 97¢ $15 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? SELL No 97¢ $955 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $25 8h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $48 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $49 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $132 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $26 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $10 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $4 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $20 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,932.00 · official $44,932.73 (match) · 3500 history records