Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x6073…0c0a crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$135 (+24%) realized +$120 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$97
sports 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +33.2% +20.5% 57% 57% +7.0%
≤30d 23 +33.2% +20.5% 57% 57% +7.0%
≤90d 23 +33.2% +20.5% 57% 57% +7.0%
all 23 +33.2% +20.5% 57% 57% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 57% +7.0%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 57% -3.2%
15% -1.5% 57% -12.6%
20% -11.2% 48% -21.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 40¢ 48¢ $75 $90 +$15 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$57 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$66 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +44%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$8 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $78 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $18 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL Canada 96¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 68¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.08 · official $90.08 (match) · 45 history records