Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:18:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x6073…15b6 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 33% +$2
crypto 8% +$1
economics 3% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 31% 0% -9.2%
all 42 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.0%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.05 per $1 lost it wins $3.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage448d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $72 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $35 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $24 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -83%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will 'Mononoke The Movie: The Phantom in the Rain' win Crunchyroll's F May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 25 $20 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 24 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will 'My Hero Academia: You’re Next' win Crunchyroll's Film of the Yea May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 05 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 03 $27 $0 -1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 01 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $18 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $35 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $36 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $2 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $30 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $36 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $35 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $35 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $19 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records