Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
60 0x6077…60b9 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$12
politics 30% −$9
sports 10% +$50
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 113 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×10.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage136d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $384 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $179 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $551 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $363 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $400 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $360 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $330 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $366 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $341 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $410 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $473 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 10 $407 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 4h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 24d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 25d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 25d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 26d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 26d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 27d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $208 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $208 30d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 30d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $179 32d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 32d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $156 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $156 33d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $152 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.08 · official $32.08 (match) · 355 history records