trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 88% | 62% | +0.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 88% | 62% | +0.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 88% | 62% | +0.5% |
| all | 18 | -4.1% | -13.2% | 83% | 44% | -5.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.2% | 44% | -5.9% |
| 10% | -21.5% | 22% | -14.9% |
| 15% | -29.1% | 11% | -23.1% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 0% | -30.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $113 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-27? | Jun 28 | $92 | +$15 | +16% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 27 | $42 | +$8 | +20% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? | Jun 27 | $42 | +$10 | +24% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 26 | $76 | +$8 | +11% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | Jun 25 | $63 | +$13 | +20% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Mar 03 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Feb 28 | $53 | $0 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | Feb 28 | $30 | +$12 | +41% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 20 | $10 | +$1 | +5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 14 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 02 | $10 | +$5 | +47% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 24? | Dec 25 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 2 | Dec 23 | $80 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? | Dec 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 21? | Dec 22 | $2 | $0 | +25% |