Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x6083…c18f other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$17
politics 24% −$8
sports 6% −$20
economics 6% −$2
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.4% +6.2% 17% 17% -8.3%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 16% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 110 -4.1% -13.2% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 110 -4.1% -13.2% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 6% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 6% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage89d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 +$7 +105%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $241 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 29 $45 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $271 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $266 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $262 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $266 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $266 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $277 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +2%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $518 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $251 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $264 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $279 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $771 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $302 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 5h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 24h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 32h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $95 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 9d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 19d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $44 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $45 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 22d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.72 · official $253.72 (match) · 316 history records