Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x6086…f4df other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$114 (+12%) realized +$117 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$173
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$119
other 38% −$3
tech 5% +$1
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +77.8% +60.8% 100% 100% +57.9%
≤90d 10 -4.3% -13.4% 80% 20% +9.9%
all 15 -2.4% -11.7% 87% 13% +7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 13% +7.9%
10% -20.2% 13% -2.4%
15% -27.9% 13% -11.9%
20% -35.0% 7% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$67 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage168d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $304 $301 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $152 +$173 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $182 +$76 +42%
Senators vs. Hurricanes Apr 18 $132 −$130 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 20 Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $9 $0 +5%
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 20 Feb 03 $12 $0 +1%
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 03 $19 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 07 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.58 · official $300.58 (match) · 29 history records