Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6087…545e crypto 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$75 (-12%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 27% -36.9%
≤30d 22 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 27% -36.9%
≤90d 22 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 27% -36.9%
all 22 -29.2% -36.0% 36% 27% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 27% -36.9%
10% -42.1% 27% -42.9%
15% -47.7% 18% -48.4%
20% -52.8% 18% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$5 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$19 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $57 +$14 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$25 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $67 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records