Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
60 0x608b…fbd6 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,528 (-7%) realized −$11,252 · open +$4,724
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,278per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$79,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 208d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$5,194
sports 12% −$12,000
crypto 7% +$467
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +12.7% +2.0% 67% 67% -66.2%
≤90d 3 +12.7% +2.0% 67% 67% -66.2%
all 8 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 50% -53.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 50% -53.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 25% -57.6%
15% -38.8% 25% -61.7%
20% -44.8% 25% -65.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,351 vs −$4,116 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$79,154
Realized−$11,252
Unrealized+$4,724
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions15
Markets (closed)8 / 23
History coverage208d
Avg bet$4,278
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18,999 $19,759 +$760 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $13,000 $19,588 +$6,588 (+51%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14,800 $12,660 −$2,140 (-14%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $10,000 $10,531 +$531 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,000 $6,304 +$304 (+5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5,000 $4,665 −$335 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,000 $2,978 −$22 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,200 $896 −$304 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $848 −$152 (-15%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $700 $410 −$290 (-41%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $275 −$75 (-21%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $150 $115 −$35 (-23%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 08 $12,054 −$12,000 -100%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 May 19 $1,000 +$162 +16%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? May 19 $2,000 +$2,438 +122%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 25 $1,366 −$1,366 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Nov 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 25 $1,000 +$202 +20%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $2,500 +$2,600 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,086 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,084 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,088 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,088 43h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,483 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $12 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $8 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $80 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $336 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 82¢ $10,054 9d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,086 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,085 9d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes $10 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,147 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,088 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 27d
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 SELL Yes 47¢ $1,162 28d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 28d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 28d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 28d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 28d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,028 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10,043 36d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79,154.36 · official $79,154.36 (match) · 137 history records