Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6090…6dbb crypto 1100 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$462 (-4%) realized −$460 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%653W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$45
14 days−$45
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$122
world 14% +$20
sports 11% −$142
other 9% −$223
finance 7% −$23
weather 6% −$94
economics 1% −$8
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -35.7% -41.8% 27% 18% -33.4%
≤30d 88 -30.9% -37.5% 30% 26% -20.6%
≤90d 1095 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 33% -13.8%
all 1095 -5.6% -14.6% 60% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 33% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 22% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 14% -29.6%
20% -37.1% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$460
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses653 / 442
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1095 / 1100
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1095 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MOUZ 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Enjoy 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Rune Eaters 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $80 +$10 +12%
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 30? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in April 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in April 2026? Jun 21 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2? Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 21 $13 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 +$5 +97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $7 +$7 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $6 +$5 +83%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $21 −$5 -21%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $9 +$7 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $30 +$18 +59%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $20 +$7 +36%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $7 +$5 +62%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $20 +$16 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 +$2 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $131 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $18 −$13 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $18 −$15 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$3 -35%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 31 $15 +$14 +91%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 31 $15 +$11 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 31? May 31 $24 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $6 −$5 -76%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 +$5 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $20 +$4 +21%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $25 +$27 +105%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$10 +99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $56 +$25 +44%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 2? May 27 $2 $0 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 28? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 2 May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on April 30? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 16¢ $2 23m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 97¢ $90 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 86¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 64¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $15 2h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 9¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $30 16d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $10 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 53¢ $10 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $9 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 51¢ $7 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $48 18d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $6 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 62¢ $30 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 8¢ $2 18d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 68¢ $10 19d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 95¢ $27 19d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 69¢ $20 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 17¢ $3 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 84¢ $11 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $7 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 98¢ $12 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $7 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $36 19d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $20 19d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 2? SELL No 99¢ $4 21d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 3500 history records