Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6092…dd20 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,970 (-28%) realized −$5,984 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,163per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$3,911now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6,190
sports 14% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.6% -20.9% 14% 14% -41.3%
≤30d 7 -12.6% -20.9% 14% 14% -41.3%
≤90d 7 -12.6% -20.9% 14% 14% -41.3%
all 7 -12.6% -20.9% 14% 14% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 14% -41.3%
10% -28.5% 0% -46.9%
15% ← realistic here -35.4% 0% -52.1%
20% -41.7% 0% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1,041 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3,911
Realized−$5,984
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,163
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 86¢ 86¢ $2,836 $2,853 +$16 (+1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $821 $821 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $240 $238 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 28 $1,249 −$33 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Jun 28 $1,668 −$34 -2%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $13,433 −$6,072 -45%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $205 −$68 -33%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $214 −$37 -17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $775 $0 -0%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $163 +$20 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $261 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $174 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $430 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $57 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $1,923 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 76¢ $1,215 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? SELL Yes 85¢ $1,635 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $241 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,668 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,008 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $244 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $830 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 82¢ $40 30h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 85¢ $8 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 85¢ $1,105 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 84¢ $2,227 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 17¢ $309 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 22¢ $646 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 23¢ $21 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 23¢ $11 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 23¢ $2,382 38h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 50¢ $109 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 46¢ $460 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 50¢ $478 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 56¢ $329 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 52¢ $301 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 54¢ $319 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,910.94 · official $3,910.94 (match) · 71 history records