Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x6094…d510 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,562 (-2%) realized −$1,562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 32L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,996per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$620est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$4,621
sports 33% −$4,075
crypto 7% +$367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -37.8% -43.7% 32% 32% -33.9%
≤30d 51 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 37% -15.9%
≤90d 51 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 37% -15.9%
all 51 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 37% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 37% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 37% -23.9%
15% -39.8% 35% -31.3%
20% -45.7% 29% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,752) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,159 vs −$1,542 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,996
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5,394 −$5,369 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $541 −$535 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,944 +$2,428 +82%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,030 −$859 -42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,107 +$3,170 +150%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4,536 +$2,071 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,022 −$1,620 -80%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,285 +$903 +70%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,058 −$2,658 -87%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,963 −$3,963 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $3,119 −$1,142 -37%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,252 −$1,172 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,644 −$1,644 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,034 −$1,445 -71%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,676 −$1,643 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,489 +$3,154 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,102 −$4,035 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,015 +$943 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,846 +$1,053 +37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,933 +$2,652 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,041 −$2,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,790 −$2,752 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2,170 +$612 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $619 −$605 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,074 −$1,692 -82%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $510 −$506 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,670 +$4,422 +166%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,000 +$2,000 +100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $863 +$1,310 +152%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,000 +$3,843 +96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $988 −$959 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $2,021 −$2,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $774 −$759 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,027 +$1,609 +79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,537 +$1,223 +80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,601 −$2,580 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1,020 +$1,991 +195%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,160 −$1,361 -63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,259 +$5,638 +250%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,052 −$2,787 -91%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $511 −$434 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $582 −$570 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,916 −$878 -46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,988 +$1,958 +66%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $200 −$146 -73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $95 −$92 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $63 +$32 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 51m
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 0¢ $6 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 26¢ $511 2h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 27¢ $30 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $993 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,552 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 30¢ $1,171 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $918 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 5h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $1,015 5h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $1,015 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,830 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $458 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,649 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $4,528 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 30h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 13¢ $402 30h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $2,022 32h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,285 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 7¢ $332 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $3,058 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,981 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 36¢ $1,978 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $961 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 51¢ $992 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $2,127 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 3¢ $80 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records