Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
60 0x6094…3bd9 sports 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 524d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$41,268 (+18%) realized +$42,709 · open −$1,441
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%52W / 76L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$1,445per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$644est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,378
7 days+$14,070
14 days+$13,410
30 days+$13,410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$48,799
other 4% −$4,474
crypto 1% −$917
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +163.9% +138.8% 45% 42% +44.0%
≤30d 43 +104.5% +85.1% 37% 35% +32.1%
≤90d 43 +104.5% +85.1% 37% 35% +32.1%
all 128 +52.2% +37.7% 41% 38% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.7% 38% +8.2%
10% +24.5% 38% -2.1%
15% +12.5% 36% -11.6%
20% +1.5% 34% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$2,201) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +38% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,672 vs −$1,238 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$2,412
Realized+$42,709
Unrealized−$1,441
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses52 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$644
Open positions14
Markets (closed)128 / 156
History coverage524d
Avg bet$1,445
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $900 $893 −$7 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $977 $580 −$397 (-41%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $410 $402 −$8 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $236 $136 −$100 (-42%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $208 $124 −$83 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $200 $68 −$132 (-66%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $97 $54 −$42 (-44%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $113 $36 −$77 (-68%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $100 $29 −$71 (-71%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 5¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $517 $2 −$515 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $223 +$7,395 +3311%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $813 −$800 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,923 −$507 -13%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $856 −$838 -98%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$2 +5%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$90 +238%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$24 +137%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $399 −$388 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $716 −$700 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $915 −$900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,706 +$1,386 +81%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $410 −$400 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $450 +$866 +192%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,114 +$159 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,415 −$2,415 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $85 +$71 +84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,774 +$1,196 +67%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $372 +$6,328 +1700%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$48 -94%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1,086 +$3,269 +301%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $542 −$30 -6%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $412 −$404 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $587 −$572 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$313 +1521%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,419 −$20 -1%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $351 +$1,073 +306%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $2,179 −$50 -2%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,098 −$484 -44%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $534 +$733 +137%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $1,449 −$430 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $587 −$573 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $817 −$740 -91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $511 +$1,108 +217%
Lakers vs. Thunder Nov 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 28 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $844 −$844 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Oct 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 23 $2,272 −$2,272 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 06 $1,513 −$1,513 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $49 4m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $909 6m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $10 8m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 95¢ $968 11m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 35m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $680 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 5¢ $690 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end i BUY 1¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 5¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 4¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 4¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 1¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 1¢ $6 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 4¢ $43 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 2¢ $31 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 15¢ $500 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $32 7h
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 3¢ $8 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 3¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 3¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a dr BUY 1¢ $206 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $21 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 8h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $10 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a BUY 1¢ $77 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY 33¢ $70 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 18¢ $205 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,412.10 · official $3,530.08 · 840 history records