Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x609e…474d world 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
politics 18% +$1
other 17% $0
sports 15% −$7
economics 5% −$1
weather 0% −$3
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 +1.3% -8.4% 25% 8% -10.0%
≤90d 61 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 7% -9.6%
all 67 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 7% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -10.0%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 3% -26.5%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage486d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 86¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $143 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $95 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $19 −$2 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $76 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $74 −$4 -6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $12 +$5 +37%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $82 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $19 +$1 +5%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $27 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $158 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $77 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $28 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $31 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $29 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $26 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $28 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $32 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $32 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $27 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $4 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $32 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $14 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.46 · official $28.21 · 330 history records