Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x609e…b5b4 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+11%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$4
weather 22% $0
crypto 21% +$6
culture 11% +$94
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 0% -8.7%
all 18 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 6% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 6% +1.1%
10% -13.0% 6% -8.6%
15% -21.4% 6% -17.4%
20% -29.1% 6% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×14.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×173.96 per $1 lost it wins $173.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage482d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $49 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $49 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $46 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $42 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 22 $205 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $199 +$6 +3%
Will "The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent" win Best Action Short Film Mar 20 $105 +$94 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $9 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 68¢ $40 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $49 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 83¢ $49 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $49 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $44 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $42 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $6 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $37 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $41 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $5 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $37 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $41 29d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $31 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.09 · official $49.09 (match) · 48 history records