Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x609e…0ae6 crypto 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,363 (+36%) realized +$2,364 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%172W / 71L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$13
sports 40% +$2,350
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 88 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
all 243 -28.2% -35.1% 71% 0% +23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 0% +23.0%
10% -41.3% 0% +11.2%
15% -47.0% 0% +0.5%
20% -52.2% 0% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +36% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$0 · ×1084.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2627.02 per $1 lost it wins $2627.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2,364
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses172 / 71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)243 / 245
History coverage188d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18? May 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 12? May 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 11? May 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 10? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 9? May 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 8? May 08 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 7? May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 06 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $28 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $28 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $27 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $27 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $27 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.10 · official $32.10 (match) · 502 history records