Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
60 0x609e…623c other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$197 (+42%) realized +$186 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +50.7% +36.4% 80% 80% +44.5%
≤30d 5 +50.7% +36.4% 80% 80% +44.5%
≤90d 5 +50.7% +36.4% 80% 80% +44.5%
all 5 +50.7% +36.4% 80% 80% +44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.4% 80% +44.5%
10% +23.3% 80% +30.7%
15% +11.4% 60% +18.1%
20% +0.5% 40% +6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$19 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.86 per $1 lost it wins $11.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$186
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 40¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 29¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$15 +29%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $47 +$44 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 +$123 +124%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$46 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 89¢ $65 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 44¢ $31 26h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $50 29h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $47 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $99 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.65 · official $126.67 (match) · 13 history records