Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

60 0x60a3…378d world 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$7,481 (+21%) realized +$9,218 · open −$1,737

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +216% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +159% what you keep after slip

Net edge+159%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$4,019per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$16,824now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+186.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+216.5%	+186.4%	100%	100%	+175.8%
≤30d	2	+216.5%	+186.4%	100%	100%	+175.8%
≤90d	2	+216.5%	+186.4%	100%	100%	+175.8%
all	2	+216.5%	+186.4%	100%	100%	+175.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+186.4%	100%	+175.8%
10% ← realistic here	+159.0%	100%	+149.4%
15%	+134.0%	100%	+125.3%
20%	+111.0%	100%	+103.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +205% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +217% · $-wt +205% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$4,630 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage

Net worth$16,824

Realized+$9,218

Unrealized−$1,737

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions7

Markets (closed)2 / 9

History coverage59d

Avg bet$4,019

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	18¢	18¢	$8,229	$7,920	−$310 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Yes	39¢	38¢	$3,594	$3,448	−$146 (-4%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Yes	16¢	11¢	$3,847	$2,698	−$1,149 (-30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$2,330	$2,234	−$96 (-4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$239	$231	−$8 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$212	$201	−$11 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$110	$91	−$18 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Jun 15	$2,550	+$3,189	+125%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$1,971	+$6,071	+308%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	19¢	$445	47m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1,500	48m
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	SELL Yes	17¢	$1,944	49m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	18¢	$460	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY Yes	40¢	$1,200	1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	SELL Yes	17¢	$1,661	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	18¢	$434	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY Yes	39¢	$400	1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	SELL Yes	17¢	$834	1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	19¢	$100	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	SELL Yes	4¢	$60	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	9¢	$90	2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	19¢	$94	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL Yes	1¢	$94	2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$443	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	9¢	$34	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	SELL Yes	4¢	$118	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL Yes	9¢	$114	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	SELL Yes	4¢	$129	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL Yes	1¢	$47	2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY Yes	18¢	$797	2h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	SELL Yes	18¢	$650	2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	SELL Yes	1¢	$146	3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	10¢	$191	3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$208	3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$156	3h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	SELL Yes	18¢	$554	3h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	10¢	$313	4h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$415	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,823.99 · official $16,894.01 (match) · 128 history records