Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60a3…2fbd world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$63 (+6%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 20% $0
politics 16% +$10
sports 12% +$26
crypto 2% +$30
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 43 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 7% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -3.8%
10% -18.6% 7% -13.0%
15% -26.4% 7% -21.4%
20% -33.6% 5% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.62 per $1 lost it wins $6.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage491d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 09 $7 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sadie Sink win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mircea Geoană advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 04 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $27 $0 -1%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 30 $21 +$30 +145%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -88%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Mar 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $48 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 20 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $21 +$8 +37%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Mar 05 $40 −$2 -5%
California vs. Louisville Mar 05 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Brentford vs. Everton end in a draw? Mar 05 $11 +$31 +285%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Feb 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off? Feb 18 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $25 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $23 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $22 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $34 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $34 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $33 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $33 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $20 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $11 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $31 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $34 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $34 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $35 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.83 · official $30.83 (match) · 126 history records