Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60a3…f5e8 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 572d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$123 (-7%) realized −$121 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$383
14 days−$383
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$113
sports 43% +$26
culture 7% −$51
politics 4% −$7
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -62.1% -65.7% 16% 16% -60.6%
≤30d 25 -62.1% -65.7% 16% 16% -60.6%
≤90d 26 -56.9% -61.0% 19% 19% -58.9%
all 72 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 44% -16.9%
10% -25.0% 39% -24.8%
15% -32.3% 36% -32.1%
20% -38.9% 32% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage572d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $109 −$62 -57%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playof Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixed Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Play Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-18? Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $30 +$39 +130%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 16 $111 +$17 +15%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 15 $20 +$29 +144%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 14 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 09 $33 +$9 +28%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Play Feb 08 $20 +$22 +108%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff Feb 07 $20 +$10 +51%
Valorant: LOUD vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 01 $76 +$17 +22%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff Jan 28 $20 +$29 +144%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jan 26 $30 +$20 +67%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playof Jan 26 $30 +$27 +89%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playo Jan 19 $68 +$13 +19%
Valorant: Sentinels vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Play Jan 19 $90 +$18 +20%
Valorant: MIBR vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jan 18 $32 +$11 +35%
Valorant: NRG vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Jan 17 $21 +$10 +48%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO3) Jan 17 $14 +$7 +49%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas to Jul 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix? Jul 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix Pole? Jul 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jul 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paper Rex win the 2025 VALORANT Masters Toronto Tournament? Jun 26 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 15 $15 +$30 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 5d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $69 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 70¢ $69 6d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 55d
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega BUY NRG 41¢ $20 59d
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega BUY NRG 68¢ $50 59d
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY Cloud9 67¢ $20 61d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 81d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 81d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago BUY Nongshim RedForce 87¢ $111 94d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 42¢ $10 96d
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs BUY Paper Rex 40¢ $10 96d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff BUY Paper Rex 52¢ $20 96d
Will USA win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Mixed BUY Yes 63¢ $20 128d
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? BUY Yes 78¢ $33 130d
Valorant: NRG vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs BUY NRG 59¢ $10 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.97 · official $17.97 (match) · 174 history records