Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60a5…f52e sports 1759 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$573 (+2%) realized +$572 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%698W / 992L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$242est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,933
7 days−$1,113
14 days−$822
30 days−$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$1,155
other 28% +$704
crypto 20% −$86
world 1% −$71
politics 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 196 -4.7% -13.8% 22% 22% -35.0%
≤30d 475 +8.6% -1.8% 35% 35% -12.5%
≤90d 1690 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 41% -12.0%
all 1690 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 41% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 41% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 40% -20.5%
15% -27.1% 38% -28.1%
20% -34.2% 35% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized+$572
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses698 / 992
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1690 / 1759
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+17%)
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 12¢ 9¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 21 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$29 -159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 31¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 19¢ $20 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 36¢ $18 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 40¢ $51 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 38¢ $46 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $4 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 5¢ $13 10h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 22¢ $10 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $41 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 29¢ $124 10h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $5 11h
Spread: Japan (-4.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $4 18h
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 18h
Junya Itō: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 18h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 18h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 7¢ $5 18h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $5 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $10 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $10 19h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 18¢ $10 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $10 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 50¢ $80 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $20 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 5¢ $5 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 12¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.81 · official $589.81 · 3500 history records