Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60a7…4a91 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$629 (-33%) realized −$683 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%7W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$432
14 days−$470
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$174
sports 19% −$157
crypto 12% −$212
world 6% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -52.0% -56.6% 10% 10% -73.3%
≤30d 41 -41.7% -47.3% 15% 15% -45.1%
≤90d 51 -48.4% -53.3% 12% 12% -53.3%
all 55 -47.3% -52.4% 13% 13% -46.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.4% 13% -46.1%
10% -56.9% 13% -51.3%
15% -61.1% 13% -56.0%
20% -64.9% 13% -60.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$26 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$683
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses7 / 48
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage94d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? No 68¢ 100¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+46%)
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $20 $62 +$42 (+212%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $21 −$7 -36%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran Jun 28 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 +$80 +712%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $57 −$13 -22%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$30 +290%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$153 +250%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $118 −$58 -49%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 15 $133 −$130 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $131 +$122 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs 1WIN (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs Apr 05 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 05 $111 −$99 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $12 −$7 -62%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $5 $0 -8%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 05 $54 −$45 -83%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $35 −$5 -14%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Apr 05 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S Apr 05 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 0¢ $0 2h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 2h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 39¢ $31 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY No 68¢ $50 4h
Will Nico Hulkenberg finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4h
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4h
Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gran BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 46h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 46h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $112 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $71 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $42 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.38 · official $161.38 (match) · 101 history records