Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x60a7…28c5 crypto 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$182 (+4%) realized +$183 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%68W / 29L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day70.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$87
sports 8% +$150
other 3% −$5
weather 0% −$6
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +14.3% +3.4% 70% 58% -8.4%
≤30d 97 +14.3% +3.4% 70% 58% -8.4%
≤90d 97 +14.3% +3.4% 70% 58% -8.4%
all 97 +14.3% +3.4% 70% 58% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 58% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 48% -17.2%
15% -15.5% 38% -25.2%
20% -23.8% 27% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses68 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage2d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day70.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 70¢ 48¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-32%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 64¢ 91¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $77 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $228 −$214 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $128 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $128 −$81 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$33 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$25 +25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$11 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.41 · official $89.41 (match) · 243 history records