Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ab…6d72 other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$106 (-0%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$43
sports 27% −$21
crypto 8% −$5
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$35
culture 5% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 90 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 185 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.8%
all 254 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage132d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $327 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $235 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $113 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $32 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $286 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $130 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $402 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $233 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $710 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $154 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $403 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $35 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $378 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $116 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $308 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $31 2h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $31 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $31 5h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $31 7h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $7 8h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $7 9h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 11h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 14h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 15h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $31 17h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $31 18h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 20h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $31 23h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $31 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 28h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 31h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $31 32h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 33h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $32 35h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $32 37h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 43h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $32 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.57 · official $30.57 (match) · 1460 history records