Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60ab…e297 other 1144 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,244 (+3%) realized +$8,286 · open +$958
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%622W / 491L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1,812est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$13,939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days−$1,020
14 days−$11,103
30 days−$36,912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$10,431
sports 48% −$3,532
world 1% +$858
crypto 0% +$705
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +19.2% +7.8% 51% 49% -11.7%
≤30d 548 -35.5% -41.6% 32% 32% -36.4%
≤90d 1113 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 54% -7.1%
all 1113 +5.4% -4.6% 56% 54% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 54% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 53% -16.0%
15% -22.1% 47% -24.1%
20% -29.7% 37% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$210 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$13,939
Realized+$8,286
Unrealized+$958
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses622 / 491
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,812
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1113 / 1144
History coverage71d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $826 $1,184 +$358 (+43%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $924 $930 +$6 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $900 $918 +$18 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $696 $882 +$186 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $852 $858 +$6 (+1%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $557 $629 +$72 (+13%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $525 $625 +$100 (+19%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $588 $606 +$18 (+3%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $557 $598 +$41 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $572 $590 +$18 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $397 $586 +$189 (+48%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $588 $571 −$17 (-3%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $588 $568 −$20 (-3%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 78¢ $352 $502 +$150 (+43%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $544 $458 −$86 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 70¢ $429 $451 +$22 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $506 $445 −$61 (-12%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 53¢ $237 $339 +$102 (+43%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 96¢ $285 $337 +$52 (+18%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $294 $259 −$35 (-12%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $254 $242 −$12 (-5%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $192 $240 +$48 (+25%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $171 $218 +$48 (+28%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $378 $195 −$182 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $211 $176 −$35 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $888 +$312 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $585 +$615 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $588 +$612 +104%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $852 +$348 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $348 +$408 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $525 −$516 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 −$996 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,269 −$69 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $444 +$756 +170%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $368 −$360 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $516 −$516 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $396 −$396 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $576 +$624 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $978 +$222 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $888 +$312 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $456 +$744 +163%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $852 −$852 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $833 −$183 -22%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,197 +$3 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $111 +$1,089 +982%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $308 +$347 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $804 +$396 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $288 +$912 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $820 −$382 -46%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 15 $744 −$744 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $930 −$924 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $360 −$360 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 15 $298 −$298 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $413 −$413 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $578 −$578 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $432 −$432 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $540 −$540 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $561 −$561 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $864 −$864 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1,242 −$1,242 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,166 −$1,166 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $966 +$234 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $612 +$588 +96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $876 +$324 +37%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $525 +$675 +129%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $876 +$324 +37%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $531 +$239 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $859 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $597 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $585 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $525 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $1,001 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $111 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $8 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $85 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $130 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $89 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $178 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $254 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $21 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $44 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $136 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $571 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $14 18h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $4 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $705 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $930 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $597 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $900 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $660 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $368 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,938.56 · official $13,948.23 (match) · 2734 history records