Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
60 0x60b1…2ad6 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+10%) realized +$39 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$7
sports 4% +$13
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% +1.1%
≤30d 10 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% +1.1%
≤90d 10 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% +1.1%
all 10 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 40% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 40% +1.1%
10% -11.7% 40% -8.5%
15% -20.2% 40% -17.4%
20% -28.1% 30% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage5d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $14 +$27 +188%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$47 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.73 · official $84.07 · 15 history records