Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60b2…c82f sports 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 1209d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,505 (-12%) realized −$7,503 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%95W / 112L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$262
14 days+$367
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$5,759
other 27% −$1,692
crypto 2% −$20
politics 0% +$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +35.2% +22.4% 57% 57% +35.3%
≤30d 10 +19.9% +8.5% 50% 50% +33.2%
≤90d 17 +10.6% +0.1% 53% 53% +24.8%
all 207 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 43% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 43% -21.1%
10% -27.6% 39% -28.7%
15% -34.6% 31% -35.5%
20% -41.0% 23% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$178 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1209d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$7,503
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses95 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 210
History coverage1209d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $100 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$141 +140%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $203 +$75 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $25 +$77 +303%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $140 +$214 +152%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $104 −$103 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $998 +$434 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $41 +$62 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $19 +$8 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 02 $497 +$227 +46%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof Apr 02 $51 −$50 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $30 +$6 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $100 +$254 +254%
Will Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jan 01 $350 +$610 +174%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $945 −$945 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $765 −$765 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Dec 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $99 −$3 -3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-23? Dec 23 $676 −$676 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Dec 16 $7 +$14 +212%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $260 +$284 +109%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $385 −$385 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Dec 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs BIG (BO3) Dec 14 $300 −$300 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $960 +$411 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Amosov (Welterweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $9,838 +$2,122 +22%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 01 $599 −$599 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs B8 (BO3) Oct 27 $368 −$368 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) Oct 27 $175 +$193 +110%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs NIP (BO3) Oct 27 $67 +$108 +163%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs paiN (BO3) Oct 27 $2,080 −$2,080 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Oct 27 $450 +$150 +33%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $50 +$46 +92%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $204 +$181 +88%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $270 +$48 +18%
Park vs. Aliskerov Oct 26 $10 +$5 +49%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Oct 26 $25 +$27 +108%
Volkov vs. Almeida Oct 26 $30 +$51 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 41¢ $101 10h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $169 11h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 59¢ $101 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $277 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $142 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 29¢ $80 42h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $354 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $77 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $63 7d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 43¢ $88 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $3 8d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $104 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down $2 76d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-12? SELL No 100¢ $1,432 76d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-04-12? BUY No 69¢ $998 76d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY Legacy 59¢ $103 81d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage SELL EYEBALLERS 100¢ $103 81d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY EYEBALLERS 39¢ $41 81d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 86d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play BUY G2 68¢ $497 86d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier Playof BUY MOUZ 50¢ $51 86d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 86d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $36 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.10 · official $97.10 (match) · 422 history records