Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60b2…3cce other 96 markets active 181d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (316 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,920 (-4%) realized −$11,999 · open −$921
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%42W / 264L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,571per market
Trades / day316.2pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3,724now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$52,269
sports 37% −$65,722
world 1% −$3,200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (316 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -66.4% -69.6% 2% 2% -99.1%
≤30d 209 -66.4% -69.6% 2% 2% -99.1%
≤90d 209 -66.4% -69.6% 2% 2% -99.1%
all 306 -56.4% -60.5% 14% 11% -73.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover316.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.5% 11% -73.9%
10% -64.3% 9% -76.4%
15% ← realistic here -67.8% 8% -78.7%
20% -70.9% 5% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$2,500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -59% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
30.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,453 vs −$2,060 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,724
Realized−$11,999
Unrealized−$921
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses42 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)306 / 96
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$3,571
Trades / day316.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $179 $1,438 +$1,258 (+703%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $288 +$108 (+61%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $262 +$83 (+47%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $212 +$33 (+19%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $361 $166 −$195 (-54%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $162 −$17 (-9%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $162 −$17 (-9%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $361 $153 −$208 (-58%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $179 $138 −$42 (-23%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $361 $100 −$261 (-72%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $361 $60 −$301 (-83%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $361 $33 −$328 (-91%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $361 $20 −$341 (-94%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $361 $20 −$341 (-94%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $361 $7 −$354 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 268 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025? Jun 29 $365 +$135 +37%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jun 29 $0 −$140 -120564%
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31? Jun 29 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Vikings vs. Cowboys Jun 29 $6,850 −$6,850 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 4PM ET Jun 29 $704 −$704 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jun 29 $283 −$283 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 29 $3,027 −$3,027 -100%
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2025 US Open? Jun 29 $207 −$803 -388%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 1AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 6PM ET Jun 29 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 1PM ET Jun 29 $69 −$69 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-14? Jun 29 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Jun 29 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
XRP Up or Down - August 16, 12PM ET Jun 29 $710 −$710 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 2AM ET Jun 29 $794 −$794 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 12, 4AM ET Jun 29 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 16, 6AM ET Jun 29 $887 −$887 -100%
Troy vs. Jacksonville State Jun 29 $6,150 −$6,150 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 16, 1PM ET Jun 29 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2025 US Open? Jun 29 $849 −$849 -100%
X Money launch in 2025? Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 16, 4AM ET Jun 29 $693 −$693 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 7AM ET Jun 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 14, 5AM ET Jun 29 $580 −$580 -100%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - August 16, 5AM ET Jun 29 $1,329 −$1,329 -100%
AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Cleveland Monsters Jun 29 $1,670 −$1,670 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 12PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Canucks vs. Rangers Jun 29 $3,512 −$3,846 -110%
Will Rangers FC win on 2025-12-15? Jun 29 $4,700 −$4,700 -100%
Will Dundee United FC win on 2025-12-17? Jun 29 $152 −$152 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET Jun 29 $1,181 −$1,180 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Jun 29 $185 −$185 -100%
Predators vs. Blues Jun 29 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 12, 9AM ET Jun 29 $1,225 −$1,225 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2025-12-14? Jun 29 $696 −$692 -100%
Will CD Tondela win on 2025-12-13? Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 14, 6PM ET Jun 29 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 13, 8PM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will SK Rapid Wien win on 2025-12-18? Jun 29 $852 −$852 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2025-12-15? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 14, 10PM ET Jun 29 $1,393 −$1,393 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10PM ET Jun 29 $1,696 −$1,696 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 6PM ET Jun 29 $557 −$523 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 15, 6AM ET Jun 29 $592 −$592 -100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 US Open? Jun 29 $834 −$704 -84%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-12-15? Jun 29 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Pistons vs. Mavericks Jun 29 $10,350 −$10,350 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $59 181d
Will Claude 5 be released by December 31? SELL No 99¢ $992 186d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $104 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $77 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $530 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $6 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $5 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $113 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $17 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $16 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $8 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $11 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $11 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $17 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $24 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $23 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $1 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $56 189d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? BUY No 53¢ $43 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $1,368 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $22 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $14 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $14 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $14 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $172 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $27 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $208 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $54 189d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $135 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,724.07 · official $3,723.95 (match) · 3500 history records