Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60b2…1b33 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% −$23
politics 26% −$16
sports 15% −$18
crypto 12% +$1
culture 6% −$9
finance 6% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 63 -0.8% -10.3% 6% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 108 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 132 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage104d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $365 −$6 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $221 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $47 −$1 -2%
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $133 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $187 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $164 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 15 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $59 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $40 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $184 −$3 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $47 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $247 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $106 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $47 5h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 6h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 14h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $9 15h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $9 19h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $55 19h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 27h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 28h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $56 35h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $63 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $64 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 41h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $51 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 2d
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio SELL No 90¢ $49 2d
Will the Florida Panthers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champio BUY No 94¢ $51 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $48 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $51 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $41 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $41 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.91 · official $47.91 (match) · 504 history records