Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
60 0x60b6…eb2b sports 690 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 230d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36,556 (-20%) realized −$36,120 · open −$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%255W / 434L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$1,447est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$347
7 days−$347
14 days−$347
30 days−$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$34,591
other 7% −$3,733
crypto 6% −$2,277
tech 0% −$155
politics 0% +$66
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +118.8% +98.0% 40% 40% -33.5%
≤30d 10 +118.8% +98.0% 40% 40% -33.5%
≤90d 210 -6.0% -15.0% 43% 43% -31.3%
all 689 -16.7% -24.6% 37% 36% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 36% -30.0%
10% -31.8% 36% -36.7%
15% -38.4% 36% -42.8%
20% -44.5% 35% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$247 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36,120
Unrealized−$436
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses255 / 434
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$1,447
Open positions1
Markets (closed)689 / 690
History coverage231d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 689 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 0¢ $436 $0 −$436 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $98 +$101 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$46 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$77 +1447%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $341 +$270 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$41 +159%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $360 −$353 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $162 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $160 −$157 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 13 $2,336 −$2,300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 13 $1,187 +$1,197 +101%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $1,487 −$1,463 -98%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 13 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner May 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner May 13 $950 +$1,081 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner May 13 $3,108 −$3,062 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $1,193 −$1,175 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $2,235 +$2,070 +93%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 13 $1,128 +$1,107 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 13 $205 +$116 +57%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $1,421 −$1,421 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Tunis: Dalibor Svrcina vs Tristan Boyer May 13 $748 +$362 +48%
Bordeaux: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller May 13 $317 −$233 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 13 $378 +$371 +98%
Oeiras 4: Vilius Gaubas vs Petr Brunclik May 13 $1,211 −$1,192 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $98 −$96 -98%
Zagreb: Mili Poljicak vs Dominic Stephan Stricker May 13 $1,130 −$1,112 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $315 +$184 +58%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Lavked - Map 2 Winner May 13 $343 +$258 +75%
Bordeaux: Otto Virtanen vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 13 $1,300 +$1,077 +83%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 13 $106 −$104 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs May 13 $1,066 +$783 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 13 $324 −$316 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 13 $953 −$943 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 - Map 1 Winner May 13 $102 −$55 -54%
Valorant: Cloud9 vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 13 $550 +$449 +82%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) May 13 $410 −$410 -100%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) May 13 $2,336 −$2,336 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 13 $1,177 −$1,077 -91%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 13 $1,696 −$1,687 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $847 +$1,419 +168%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner May 13 $589 +$710 +121%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) May 13 $157 +$149 +95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-5.5) May 13 $256 −$138 -54%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) May 13 $350 +$257 +74%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 13 $550 +$429 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 52¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $187 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $611 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $341 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 39¢ $41 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 3500 history records