Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60b8…d47d sports 1093 markets active 3d ago coverage 160d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,319 (-1%) realized −$1,319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%642W / 451L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$240
14 days−$185
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$780
other 7% −$399
world 1% −$29
crypto 1% +$83
politics 0% −$29
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -25.2% -32.3% 43% 43% -27.0%
≤30d 80 -13.1% -21.4% 50% 50% -21.9%
≤90d 186 -11.1% -19.6% 53% 48% -17.4%
all 1093 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 49% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 49% -10.5%
10% -20.7% 39% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 29% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$51 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses642 / 451
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1093 / 1093
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1093 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 +$9 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$31 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $91 −$7 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $64 +$25 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 −$36 -36%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 +$28 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $118 +$40 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $36 +$36 +101%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $126 +$76 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$27 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$30 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 −$19 -76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$25 -55%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$23 +117%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$17 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $81 −$9 -10%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $41 +$60 +147%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $152 +$120 +79%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$10 +34%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 09 $31 +$47 +154%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $43 +$23 +54%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $8 +$6 +76%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $14 +$15 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$10 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $14 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $45 +$16 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 65¢ $18 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $19 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $17 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $122 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $129 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 75¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 1¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 3¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 96¢ $108 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $81 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $90 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $64 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 56¢ $64 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $15 5d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $35 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $15 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 80¢ $50 5d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $59 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $158 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $37 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 6d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $30 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $71 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records