Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

60 0x60b9…6117 crypto 3 markets active 4h ago coverage 214d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,752 (-17%) realized −$1,538 · open −$214

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,489per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$8,206now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 214d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$768 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage

Net worth$8,206

Realized−$1,538

Unrealized−$214

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage214d

Avg bet$3,489

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	7¢	7¢	$8,420	$8,206	−$214 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	Feb 08	$56	−$56	-100%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Nov 19	$1,481	−$1,481	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$15	3h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$485	3h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$115	3h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	7¢	$6,821	3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	BUY Yes	31¢	$56	132d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$56	132d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$33	132d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$964	132d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$6	133d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$492	133d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	BUY Yes	2¢	$16	214d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	BUY Yes	2¢	$257	214d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1,208	214d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,205.94 · official $8,205.94 (match) · 13 history records