Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60bf…16f4 crypto 1218 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%565W / 653L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$92
14 days−$36
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$108
other 6% +$24
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -8.5% -17.2% 33% 27% -19.4%
≤30d 619 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 36% -14.5%
≤90d 1218 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 41% -11.3%
all 1218 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 41% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 41% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 37% -19.8%
15% -29.1% 36% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses565 / 653
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1218 / 1218
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1218 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$6 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$15 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3472 history records