Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60c3…647a crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$342 (-18%) realized −$228 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$428
14 days−$428
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$403
other 30% −$365
politics 27% +$230
world 5% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -22.6% -30.0% 34% 34% -53.5%
≤30d 46 -15.0% -23.1% 35% 35% -22.0%
≤90d 46 -15.0% -23.1% 35% 35% -22.0%
all 51 -23.3% -30.6% 31% 31% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 31% -43.3%
10% -37.2% 31% -48.7%
15% -43.3% 27% -53.7%
20% -48.8% 25% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage316d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $225 $121 −$104 (-46%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$36 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$6 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$8 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$6 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 22 $238 −$70 -30%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $82 +$334 +407%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison? Jan 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Dec 30 $285 −$273 -96%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025? Aug 14 $78 −$78 -100%
North Korea missile test by August 15? Aug 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $32 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $32 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.62 · official $126.62 (match) · 117 history records