Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60c5…0353 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$366 (-9%) realized −$366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate73%35W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$5
sports 47% −$371
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 28 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 11% -9.9%
all 48 -3.8% -13.0% 73% 19% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 19% -17.9%
10% -21.3% 19% -25.8%
15% -28.9% 17% -32.9%
20% -35.9% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$76 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses35 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage142d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 11 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? Jun 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 3? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19? May 28 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 15? May 18 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? May 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? May 11 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 6? May 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4? May 05 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 1? May 04 $74 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 23 $89 −$88 -99%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $89 +$35 +40%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $67 +$70 +104%
Avalanche vs. Flames Apr 15 $66 +$44 +67%
Devils vs. Rangers Mar 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Mar 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Utah vs. Blackhawks Mar 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Islanders vs. Ducks Mar 04 $96 −$96 -100%
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets Mar 02 $72 +$92 +127%
Devils vs. Penguins Feb 27 $95 +$63 +67%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $100 $0 +0%
T20 World Cup: Ireland vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 18 $81 +$7 +9%
Saint Peter's Peacocks vs. Sacred Heart Pioneers Feb 16 $73 +$89 +122%
Will Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 13 $38 +$114 +300%
Pacers vs. Knicks Feb 10 $223 −$223 -100%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 10 $152 +$66 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 4? Feb 05 $80 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Lightning Feb 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Warriors vs. Jazz Jan 29 $95 +$30 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 28? Jan 27 $95 $0 -0%
Pacers vs. Hawks Jan 26 $90 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $79 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $79 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $79 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $79 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $78 13d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $78 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $78 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $78 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $78 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $78 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $77 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $77 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 99¢ $76 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? BUY No 99¢ $76 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $75 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 99¢ $75 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $74 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $74 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $74 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $74 47d
Sabres vs. Bruins BUY Bruins 52¢ $89 54d
Kings vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 71¢ $89 57d
Ducks vs. Predators BUY Ducks 49¢ $67 62d
Avalanche vs. Flames BUY Avalanche 60¢ $66 64d
Devils vs. Rangers BUY Devils 52¢ $75 79d
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Rangers 34¢ $49 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.04 · official $79.04 (match) · 86 history records