Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
60 0x60c8…3d3d crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$176 (+16%) realized +$168 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$14
other 45% +$160
tech 10% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 50% +6.8%
≤30d 4 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 50% +6.8%
≤90d 4 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 50% +6.8%
all 4 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 50% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 50% +6.8%
10% +5.4% 25% -3.4%
15% -4.8% 25% -12.8%
20% -14.2% 25% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage5d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $307 +$8 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $380 +$74 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $182 +$7 +4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $96 +$86 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.00 · official $108.00 (match) · 15 history records