Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60ca…bc8c other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized +$26 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day86.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$14
world 12% −$46
sports 11% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -14.4% -22.6% 21% 21% -11.0%
≤30d 38 -14.4% -22.6% 21% 21% -11.0%
≤90d 38 -14.4% -22.6% 21% 21% -11.0%
all 38 -14.4% -22.6% 21% 21% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 21% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 18% -19.5%
15% -36.8% 18% -27.3%
20% -43.0% 18% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$5 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day86.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Over 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-68%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -37%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -34%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $51 −$6 -12%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 +$33 +213%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$12 -45%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$10 -65%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -83%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -78%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -80%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +64%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$8 -27%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 +$13 +85%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 +$8 +53%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 +$15 +290%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$31 +302%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +386%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$4 -27%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$2 -15%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 56m
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 59m
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 13¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 57¢ $44 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.90 · official $15.90 (match) · 103 history records