Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
60 0x60cd…93f5 sports 449 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$785 (-0%) realized −$781 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%303W / 142L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$898per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2,490est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$5,046
other 8% +$3,152
weather 4% −$1,353
crypto 1% −$389
politics 0% +$174
world 0% +$7
tech 0% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.9% -13.9% 64% 55% -12.8%
≤30d 105 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 57% -14.2%
≤90d 445 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 58% -10.3%
all 445 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 58% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 58% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 43% -18.9%
15% -25.2% 28% -26.8%
20% -32.5% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,005) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$488 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$2,096
Realized−$781
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses303 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$2,490
Open positions2
Markets (closed)445 / 449
History coverage79d
Avg bet$898
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 85¢ 84¢ $2,000 $1,988 −$12 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? Jun 28 $202 +$134 +66%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $461 +$67 +15%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS Jun 27 $504 +$178 +35%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 Jun 27 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,331 +$935 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 27 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,007 +$326 +32%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $895 +$579 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,015 −$958 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,009 +$420 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,325 −$591 -18%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,609 +$334 +9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,012 −$995 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,414 +$676 +48%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,504 +$144 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,514 −$1,514 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,007 +$309 +31%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $986 +$638 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3,029 −$3,029 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2,011 −$2,011 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,011 +$428 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,019 +$922 +46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,000 +$251 +8%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,367 +$100 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4,961 +$253 +5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3,018 −$3,018 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,007 +$275 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2,011 +$458 +23%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,008 +$82 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,010 +$514 +51%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $506 +$327 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 14 $1,005 +$199 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2,233 +$44 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,006 +$231 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,008 +$380 +38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,007 +$275 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,788 +$148 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$579 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $2,114 −$159 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $2,009 9m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 40m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9 BUY DK 76¢ $504 15h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: DNS vs LOS BUY DNS 73¢ $504 16h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $57 16h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $87 16h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 87¢ $317 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,331 27h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Paraguay vs. Au BUY 52¢ $62 47h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $405 47h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 47h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $895 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $57 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,303 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,321 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 4¢ $206 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $1,011 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $2 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $3 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $3,609 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,095.84 · official $2,095.84 (match) · 1342 history records