Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60d0…2e36 sports 767 markets active 0h ago coverage 200d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 199d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,909 (-0%) realized −$3,080 · open −$1,829
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate85%635W / 110L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,523per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$2,734est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$88,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 200d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$36,245
politics 27% −$292
other 9% −$4,222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 +1.9% -7.8% 97% 8% +36.4%
≤30d 583 -2.1% -11.5% 93% 7% +21.1%
≤90d 633 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 10% -22.1%
all 745 -0.5% -10.0% 85% 16% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 16% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 13% -14.9%
15% -26.5% 10% -23.1%
20% -33.7% 10% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$434 vs −$2,203 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$88,982
Realized−$3,080
Unrealized−$1,829
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses635 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,734
Open positions22
Markets (closed)745 / 767
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$1,523
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 745 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 100¢ 99¢ $83,612 $83,320 −$292 (-0%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ 44¢ $6,554 $5,002 −$1,552 (-24%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 89¢ 89¢ $259 $259 +$0 (+0%)
Mehdi Taremi: 2+ goals No 97¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 97¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals No 87¢ 92¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals No 81¢ 84¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals No 97¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals No 91¢ 94¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals No 81¢ 84¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals No 65¢ 72¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Gilson Benchimol: 2+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Shahriyar Moghanloo: 2+ goals No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Chris Wood: 1+ goals No 77¢ 88¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals No 74¢ 88¢ $15 $17 +$3 (+18%)
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals No 56¢ 59¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Nicolás de la Cruz: 2+ goals No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Emam Ashour: 1+ goals No 79¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+15%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Garry Rodrigues: 2+ goals No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals No 93¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals Jun 21 $4 +$1 +24%
Dani Olmo: 2+ goals Jun 21 $34 +$6 +18%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $39 +$11 +28%
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals Jun 21 $37 +$3 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $922 +$80 +9%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $86 +$79 +92%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 172.5 Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. A Jun 21 $0 $0 -97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 21 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Gonzalo Plata: 2+ goals Jun 21 $52 +$8 +15%
John Yeboah: 1+ goals Jun 21 $3 +$2 +64%
Enner Valencia: 2+ goals Jun 21 $14 +$5 +33%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $16 +$22 +135%
Pervis Estupiñán: 1+ goals Jun 21 $4 +$1 +19%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Amad Diallo: 2+ goals Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Leroy Sané: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 +$2 +47%
Leroy Sané: 2+ goals Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 20 $26 +$4 +16%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $14 +$11 +74%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 2+ goals Jun 20 $15 $0 +3%
Ange-Yoan Bonny: 1+ goals Jun 20 $4 +$1 +24%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 20 $9 +$1 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 91¢ $27 16m
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 97¢ $38 18m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 26m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 28m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 43m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 89¢ $179 44m
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 89¢ $54 44m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 49m
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Darwin Núñez: 2+ goals BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $42 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $72 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $345 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $27 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $9 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $12 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $400 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $12 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $101 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $3 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $6,534 1h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $8 1h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $8 1h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $8 1h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88,982.16 · official $88,976.64 (match) · 3401 history records