Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60d2…4268 crypto 871 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (192 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,373 (-32%) realized −$3,372 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%365W / 501L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day192.2pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$408
sports 44% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (192 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 605 -70.9% -73.6% 17% 17% -50.7%
≤30d 866 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -13.7%
≤90d 866 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -13.7%
all 866 -6.4% -15.3% 42% 42% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover192.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 40% -22.0%
15% -30.8% 39% -29.5%
20% -37.6% 37% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3,372
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses365 / 501
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions5
Markets (closed)866 / 871
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day192.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 59¢ 80¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+36%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 69¢ 63¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Chicago White Sox 84¢ 63¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 70¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $27 −$2 -7%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $81 −$21 -26%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $18 +$22 +119%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $21 +$19 +86%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $21 +$19 +90%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $63 +$37 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $33 +$17 +50%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $36 −$10 -28%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $25 −$8 -30%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $28 +$22 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 15 $17 +$18 +109%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $36 +$19 +52%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $31 +$19 +62%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $47 +$23 +50%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $37 −$20 -54%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $9 +$12 +146%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $41 +$24 +58%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $34 +$26 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $22 +$18 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 14 $15 +$15 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $18 +$22 +124%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $844 −$29 -3%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $46 −$2 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $16 +$16 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 52¢ $4 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 52¢ $4 3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 52¢ $3 6h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 36¢ $11 16h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 52¢ $13 16h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 63¢ $16 33h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 67¢ $81 33h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 37h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $21 37h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $18 37h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 68¢ $62 44h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 56¢ $31 45h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 71¢ $25 2d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 67¢ $30 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva BUY Vera Zvonareva 61¢ $37 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Ben Shelton 69¢ $36 2d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 65¢ $46 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho BUY Yes 50¢ $15 2d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 48¢ $34 2d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 65¢ $36 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY Yes 47¢ $17 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 49¢ $19 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs BUY Yes 51¢ $12 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 55¢ $28 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 63¢ $7 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 63¢ $9 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 63¢ $25 3d
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 63¢ $51 3d
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone BUY Elizara Yaneva 66¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.33 · official $38.33 (match) · 3500 history records