Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
60 0x60d3…4cb9 other 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$361 (+2%) realized +$407 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate82%84W / 18L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$276
14 days+$276
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$392
other 23% +$268
sports 14% +$268
tech 13% −$820
politics 9% +$161
world 2% +$64
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 71% +11.1%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 78% 67% +9.2%
≤90d 47 +8.0% -2.3% 89% 43% -5.6%
all 102 +0.9% -8.7% 82% 37% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 37% -7.7%
10% -17.4% 28% -16.5%
15% -25.4% 19% -24.6%
20% -32.7% 13% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$110 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$3,271
Realized+$407
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses84 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)102 / 111
History coverage258d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $777 $802 +$25 (+3%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $666 $694 +$28 (+4%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $666 $688 +$22 (+3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $450 $446 −$4 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $243 $241 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $99 $180 +$81 (+83%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 38¢ $261 $119 −$141 (-54%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $66 $12 −$54 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $247 +$124 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $224 +$107 +48%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $48 −$47 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $379 +$136 +36%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $82 +$22 +27%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $137 +$33 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $201 +$21 +10%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 25 $112 +$33 +30%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 23 $224 +$44 +20%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? May 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 15 $445 −$444 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Trump say "Great Wall" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $204 +$18 +9%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $419 +$25 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? May 11 $340 +$34 +10%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March? May 08 $52 +$2 +4%
Spread: Göztepe SK (-2.5) May 08 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? May 08 $77 +$3 +3%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-04-11? May 08 $77 +$5 +6%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-09? May 08 $77 +$26 +34%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? May 08 $77 +$33 +43%
Spread: Göztepe SK (-1.5) May 08 $111 +$4 +4%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-11? May 08 $77 +$39 +50%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? May 08 $107 +$12 +11%
Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5) May 08 $177 +$2 +1%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-16? Apr 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 08 $77 +$24 +31%
Spread: AC Milan (-2.5) Apr 07 $77 +$2 +2%
Spread: Santos FC (-1.5) Apr 07 $77 +$3 +3%
Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5) Apr 07 $77 +$3 +4%
Spread: AS Roma (-1.5) Apr 07 $77 +$3 +4%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5) Apr 07 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $77 +$7 +10%
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $47 +$39 +83%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $47 +$44 +93%
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) Apr 07 $77 +$20 +26%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $77 +$23 +30%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Apr 05 $77 +$4 +5%
Bucharest Open: Alex Molcan vs Mariano Navone Apr 05 $77 +$31 +40%
Spread: RCD Mallorca (-1.5) Apr 05 $177 +$7 +4%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Apr 05 $177 +$7 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $777 +$7 +1%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-28? Mar 03 $77 +$22 +28%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-18? Feb 22 $17 +$1 +6%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-17? Feb 22 $88 +$11 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $247 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $455 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $247 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $224 28h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $48 28h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $101 29h
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $82 5d
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $91 5d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $262 22d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $137 29d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $379 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 90¢ $201 40d
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? BUY No 98¢ $100 40d
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? BUY No 77¢ $112 40d
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? BUY No 83¢ $224 40d
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? BUY No 94¢ $445 40d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 90¢ $34 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 11? BUY No 90¢ $340 46d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 92¢ $1 46d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 92¢ $12 46d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 92¢ $58 47d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 92¢ $115 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $26 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $33 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $27 47d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,271.36 · official $3,271.36 (match) · 331 history records