Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
60 0x60d5…e846 other 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+1%) realized +$80 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%50W / 46L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$33
sports 33% +$40
politics 9% +$24
crypto 5% +$8
tech 4% +$15
economics 4% −$37
world 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 1 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 1 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
all 96 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 22% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 22% -9.0%
10% -23.4% 12% -17.8%
15% -30.8% 7% -25.7%
20% -37.6% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses50 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage522d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 28 $242 −$3 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Feb 08 $284 +$11 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Feb 07 $10 −$9 -91%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Feb 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Feb 07 $599 −$24 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Feb 07 $112 −$108 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jan 27 $82 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jan 27 $43 +$5 +12%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 2) Jan 26 $129 −$129 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 31? Jan 26 $33 −$30 -92%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 31, 2026? Jan 26 $39 +$23 +59%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jan 25 $1 −$1 -50%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 25 $49 +$14 +28%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026? Jan 25 $248 +$72 +29%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 1) Jan 23 $30 −$30 -100%
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 3) Jan 18 $1,109 +$11 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jan 13 $20 −$1 -7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jan 12 $113 −$22 -20%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 10 $101 +$4 +4%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 202 Jan 10 $340 −$90 -26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jan 10 $35 −$8 -22%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 10 $123 +$42 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jan 09 $11 $0 -2%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 17, 202 Jan 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 09 $216 +$31 +14%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $101 −$31 -31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jan 07 $8 −$5 -70%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026 Jan 07 $308 +$9 +3%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 202 Jan 07 $88 +$12 +13%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 16, 202 Jan 07 $103 −$4 -4%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jan 03 $10 −$1 -14%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $15 $0 +3%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 01 $970 +$92 +10%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 30? Dec 30 $8 −$5 -62%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 26? Dec 26 $15 −$10 -69%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26? Dec 26 $499 −$4 -1%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 23? Dec 23 $188 +$2 +1%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship on December 22? Dec 23 $249 +$32 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 22 $152 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Dec 22 $20 −$15 -73%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Dec 21 $548 +$35 +6%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 21 $94 +$18 +19%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Dec 21 $64 −$31 -48%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Dec 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $239 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $242 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $0 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $1 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $4 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $8 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $4 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $1 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $0 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 50¢ $58 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL Yes $4 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 57¢ $6 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 57¢ $10 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 57¢ $25 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 57¢ $145 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 67¢ $103 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 67¢ $13 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 62¢ $22 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL No 44¢ $139 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 84¢ $146 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 84¢ $50 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 41¢ $50 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 43¢ $15 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 44¢ $26 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 43¢ $43 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL No 87¢ $330 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 69¢ $263 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 SELL No 50¢ $151 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY No 46¢ $138 140d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 601 history records