Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60d9…4610 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$99
other 41% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -15.8%
≤30d 19 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -15.8%
≤90d 19 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -15.8%
all 19 -27.2% -34.1% 42% 42% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.1% 42% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -40.4% 37% -23.9%
15% -46.2% 32% -31.2%
20% -51.5% 26% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $19 +$19 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 23¢ 14¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$9 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$21 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$50 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$18 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$42 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 +$31 +152%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 +$11 +54%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $16 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $102 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.19 · official $65.14 · 51 history records