Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
60 0x60dc…aaca politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% $0
other 38% $0
world 8% $0
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage113d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $88 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $89 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $89 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $89 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $89 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $88 14h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 66d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $89 67d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $89 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 70d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $89 73d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 73d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 80d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 81d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 90d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 91d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $89 96d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $89 96d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 99d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 100d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 100d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 101d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 102d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 104d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 105d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 105d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 105d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 105d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $89 106d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 106d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 111d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 111d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $89 113d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $89 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records