Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
60 0x60e4…c771 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,531 (+6%) realized +$1,583 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +114% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +72% what you keep after slip
Net edge+72%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$1,296per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$12,980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days+$584
14 days+$1,352
30 days+$1,352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$1,531
sports 31% −$1,060
crypto 2% +$829
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+93.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +395.3% +348.1% 60% 60% +4.2%
≤30d 16 +114.2% +93.8% 56% 38% +3.1%
≤90d 16 +114.2% +93.8% 56% 38% +3.1%
all 16 +114.2% +93.8% 56% 38% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +93.8% 38% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here +75.2% 31% -6.7%
15% +58.3% 31% -15.7%
20% +42.8% 31% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +114% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +246% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$653 vs −$646 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$12,980
Realized+$1,583
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,296
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5,416 $5,978 +$562 (+10%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $3,097 $2,991 −$107 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $2,580 $2,220 −$360 (-14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1,900 $1,783 −$117 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $39 $8 −$31 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $264 −$260 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $490 +$162 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,118 +$882 +79%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3,891 −$2,300 -59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,150 +$2,099 +98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,783 +$1,840 +103%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $1,088 −$1,075 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $800 −$116 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $258 −$258 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $220 +$20 +9%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $452 +$20 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $674 +$829 +123%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $90 +$14 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $88 +$8 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 19¢ $389 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $200 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $252 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $100 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $100 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $50 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $490 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,251 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,980.48 · official $12,980.46 (match) · 201 history records