Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60e8…760e crypto 237 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$65 (-2%) realized −$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate70%165W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 31% -19.5%
≤30d 13 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 31% -19.5%
≤90d 18 -19.8% -27.5% 50% 33% -18.6%
all 237 -13.7% -21.9% 70% 16% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 16% -13.2%
10% -29.4% 7% -21.5%
15% -36.2% 5% -29.1%
20% -42.5% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses165 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage126d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 22 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 22 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 22 $12 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 14 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 15 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $31 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $55 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $56 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $51 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $48 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $80 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1080 history records