Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
60 0x60eb…5bc2 crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 684d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,723 (+58%) realized +$1,663 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate31%27W / 60L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$200
14 days−$139
30 days+$1,925
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% +$1,069
crypto 23% +$397
sports 22% +$383
other 15% −$194
world 6% −$23
economics 3% +$90
tech 2% −$10
weather 1% −$4
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 +100.6% +81.5% 62% 62% +127.4%
≤90d 44 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 30% +66.9%
all 87 -11.1% -19.6% 31% 20% +46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 20% +46.3%
10% -27.3% 17% +32.3%
15% -34.3% 14% +19.6%
20% -40.8% 10% +7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$13 · ×6.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

684d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$1,663
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses27 / 60
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage684d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 67¢ 91¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 48¢ $50 $101 +$51 (+102%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-21%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $50 $37 −$12 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$121 +238%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$134 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $364 +$439 +121%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $218 +$199 +92%
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? Jun 01 $329 +$1,292 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 24 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 24 $2 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 24 $4 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 24 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 23 $6 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 23 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 23 $4 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 23 $4 +$3 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election Mar 23 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 23 Mar 23 $5 +$10 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $192 −$192 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Mar 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Republicans have 52 seats in Senate after election? Mar 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 23 Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 23? Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on March 23? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance say "fentanyl" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
BitBoy convicted? Mar 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Dec 04 $5 −$1 -22%
French election called by December 31? Dec 04 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the next James Bond be British? Dec 04 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Dec 04 $37 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 24m
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 67¢ $101 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $51 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 7¢ $14 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 48¢ $203 20d
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 57d
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 57d
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 57d
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.69 · official $329.69 (match) · 367 history records